Insights

Hilton’s Tactical Income Strategy demonstrated resilience and efficacy throughout 2024, navigating a complex market landscape characterized by rapidly changing narratives. The year was defined by a compelling dichotomy: the continued dominance of the “Magnificent 7” tech giants versus an emerging tr...

2024 provided investors with no shortage of ups and downs, beginning with a strong rally but ending with a whimper. Despite the subdued finish, it was a profitable year overall, with most equity market indices delivering healthy gains. The small- and mid-cap (smid) space posted solid returns, though...

After an extended period of subdued merger and acquisition (M&A) activity—largely driven by higher interest rates, persistent inflation, and increased regulatory scrutiny—recent signs suggest that deal-making could be poised for a meaningful rebound in 2025.

In a market heavily dominated by the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, the small and mid-cap sector may hold the key to new opportunities for investors. Tom Maher, Hilton’s Small & Mid Cap Opportunities portfolio manager, highlights the potential of this often-overlooked asset class in a video discus...

In our prior quarterly letter, we expressed concerns regarding the alarmingly narrow market breadth, heavily influenced by a select group of mega-cap technology companies. However, the third quarter has ushered in a notable shift, highlighted by increased market participation across various sectors....

The third quarter of 2024 marked a significant shift from the previous quarter, characterized most notably by a broadening market participation across sectors. Within a span of just three months, the market's narrative shifted dramatically. The focus pivoted from a prevailing trend of disinflation, ...

“It Don’t Come Easy”, released by ex-Beatle Ringo Starr in 1970, was a hit and still gets airtime today. Does the song owe its permanence to Ringo’s musical prowess or the inertia of Beatles magic? We’ll be generous and say it’s a little of both. Regardless, the title aptly describes the stock marke...

The long-standing positive correlation between equity prices and Treasury bond yields has reversed course in recent years. Since 2022, we've observed more frequent intervals of negative correlation, interrupting the positive correlation pattern of the past decade.

In the wake of recent market turbulence, including an abrupt broadening of market leadership, Tom Maher, Hilton’s veteran Small and Mid Cap Opportunities (SMCO) portfolio manager, provides expert analysis on the challenges and opportunities facing investors.

As an investment team, we constantly seek to garner a holistic view of the investment landscape. We meticulously analyze various types of data, including macroeconomic indicators, fixed income, equity, and other markets. For the management of SMCO, an equity-only product, we take particular note of ...

The second quarter of 2024 presented numerous economic cross currents, leading to mixed outcomes across different sectors, companies, and the broader market. The ongoing trend of disinflation, coupled with above-trend growth and optimistic earnings expectations, buoyed certain asset classes and sect...

As we mark the 10th anniversary of Hilton's Dividend and Yield Strategy (DIVYS), we are both humbled by the trust you’ve placed in us and energized by the opportunities that lie ahead, reflecting on a decade of strategic outperformance, resilience through market cycles, and unwavering commitment to ...

In the wake of an increasingly uncertain economic backdrop, narrowing earnings growth, and heightened market risk, market discussions have pivoted to a renewed focus on active management.

This month, we’re celebrating the 10th anniversary of our Dividend & Yield strategy (DIVYS), a distinctive, large-cap dividend approach helmed by esteemed Portfolio Manager and Co-Chief Investment Officer Alex Oxenham.

The lower-than-expected monthly job growth report released on May 3 further bolsters the growing narrative that the labor market, while robust, is showing signs of loosening.

The release of The Rise and Fall of Ziggy Stardust and the Spiders from Mars in 1972 proved pivotal for David Bowie, boosting his career into interstellar overdrive. As I started to think about writing this quarter’s letter the opening track, “Five Years,” came to mind. With SMCO hitting the five-ye...

By all metrics Q1 2024 was an undeniably optimistic ride, underlined by the continuation of a soft landing, recession odds declining, inflation receding and rate cuts in the Fed queue. Economic data is supporting the optimism; the jobs picture remains strong, the inflation picture improving, despite...

2024 is off to a strong start with the S&P 500 having its best start since 2019 and continuing the momentum that began in Q423. Since the “risk on” rally began on 10/27/23, the performance of the S&P has been impressive:

A healthy labor market, which often includes significant immigrant participation, is crucial for a flourishing economy characterized by steady and sustainable growth with relatively low inflation. The central bank’s (the Fed’s) dual mandate, to achieve maximum employment and price stability, is in s...

An Upswing in Q42023 Earnings The Q423 earnings season has surpassed expectations, providing another catalyst to the equity markets. S&P 500 earnings growth was nearly 8%, a significant improvement over the expectations of 1.2%. Of the 97% of S&P 500 companies that have reported, 76% have had positi...

The Year of the Rabbit In 2023, the Gregorian calendar was designated the year of the rabbit—a symbol of good fortune and rebirth. Perhaps, then, it’s no surprise 2023’s markets closed in a similarly spirited fashion. Fourth quarter returns leaped happily to a banner finish, dodging a handful of obs...

I. Fourth Quarter 2023: Keeping up with the Russells Ok, let’s get this out of the way right away – we did not keep up. SMCO did end the year on a strong note, generating a +10.5% gross/+10.3% net return in the fourth quarter, but Mr. Market embraced the softening inflation and positive economic dat...

As we bid farewell to 2023, we reflect on a year that presented an array of challenges and unexpected turns for the U.S. economy and financial markets. The past 12 months unfolded as a tumultuous journey, marked by a convergence of complex factors that tested the resilience of economic foundations.

In today's rapidly evolving economic landscape, understanding financial conditions is essential for investors, policymakers, businesses, and others focused on the health of the economy. Financial conditions refer to a complex mix of financial factors (expressed in indices) that collectively paint a ...

By Alex Oxenham, Co-Chief Investment Officer

The beginning of Q3 2023 kicked off on a high note with the S&P touching a 52-week high on July 31. Yet, the financial climate has shifted since then. The optimistic sentiment that fueled the market's rise over the first seven months of 2023 dissipated quite swiftly. Investors found themselves facin...

The third quarter was a rocky one for small and mid-caps. Performance started out on a positive note, as once again earnings reports were mostly better than expected. As the quarter wore on several concerns weighed on stocks, and while there were some gyrations the overall direction was south. A mél...

Q323 began right where Q223 left off, the markets had a drastic change in sentiment since the S&P 500 reached a 52-week high on July 31. The last three months morphed into a nerve-wracking quarter as investors grappled with a sharp 73bp rise in 10yr interest rates. The move brought the 10yr yield ba...

Despite increasing signs of slowing growth, corporate earnings continue to show resilience. Over the three quarters ending 2Q 2023, earnings revisions, while negative, have beat expectations, contributing to the equity markets’ ongoing buoyancy. More to the point, recent estimates reflect an even ro...

The debate over whether the economy will eventually experience a “hard” or “soft” landing continues to dominate market attention. The extended supply chain dislocations, crippling inflation, and 16 months of Fed (Federal Open Market Committee) policy tightening have all contributed to an atmosphere ...

Despite a challenging backdrop for dividend investing in 1H23, the Hilton Dividend and Yield Strategy (DIVYS) performed well. The strategy’s focus on risk adjusted returns resulted in solid performance during a quarter that experienced a significant rise in rates, led by the 2yr +87bp.

“Same old thing in brand new drag comes sweeping into view,” is a line from David Bowie’s song “Teenage Wildlife,” released in 1980. The quote, admittedly taken out of context, provides an apt description of the second quarter: Once again a handful of mega-cap tech stocks outperformed the rest of th...

First half of 2023 is done and dusted and what a six months it has been. Most investors came into 2023 positioned for higher volatility, wider credit spreads and economic headwinds. With many expecting an earnings and economic recession by Q223. Clearly, that is not how things have played out. While...

In the wake of a bruising period of Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (Fed) tightening一undertaken to reduce inflation from its recent highs to its stated 2% target level一the US labor market remains resilient, with overall labor demand continuing to outstrip supply.

Despite a challenging backdrop for dividend investing in Q123, the Hilton Dividend and Yield Strategy performed well. The strategy’s focus on risk adjusted returns resulted in outperformance versus its benchmark* during a quarter that experienced significant market headline risk and elevated volatil...

First quarter 2023 was not an easy ride for investors. Despite very solid returns by the S&P (+7.48%) and the Nasdaq (+17.05%), the first quarter was much more stressful than the index returns would suggest. Headline risk and volatility were a constant and it presented many reversals in investment f...

Led Zeppelin’s seventh studio album, Presence, was released on March 31, 1976. As I was organizing my thoughts for this letter that factoid came at me via various social media platforms (you should see what I follow). As improbable as it may seem, I see commonality between Zeppelin’s March 31, 1976 ...

Recent failures in the global banking sector coupled with uncertainty surrounding the Federal Open Market Committee’s (Fed) next moves have prompted investors to reprice risk in the capital markets.

One of 2022’s big surprises was how well high yield (HY) credit spreads performed despite the elevated volatility and bruising returns suffered by most other asset classes. (HY is a higher-risk subset of corporate bonds conventionally quoted by the difference in yield relative to a comparable Treasu...

Full Year 2022 SMCO vs. Russell 2500 Absolute Performance (top panel) & Relative Performance (bottom panel)

With the continuing rise in interest rates, yield instruments have increasingly captured the attention of hungry investors. However, “yield” can have a range of meanings and calculations within the market ecosystem. Understandably, determining which yield to use for which investment can get confusin...

Sticky inflation, a hawkish Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (Fed), slowing growth, an outsized dollar, and global conflict. Ten months into 2022 and the markets continue to strain under growing economic slackening. Bond prices are touching historic lows一due to the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes一a...

“Oh, you were serious about dat…” Stocks, Rates & Expectations Post the June Fed meeting, hopes for the “pivot” fueled the rally. But late in the quarter, the Fed quashed that idea.

“Meaningful downward pressure.” These were Federal Open Market Committee (Fed) Chairman Powell’s words last week explaining a third consecutive rate hike of 0.75% in the fight against a defiantly steep U.S. inflation rate.

Headline Inflation (Consumer Price Index) The All Items Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: for the U.S. City Average (CPI) is a comprehensive index used to measure US price inflation. It’s also referred to as “headline inflation” because it’s the measurement most commonly reported in the ...

After a bruising first half of 2022 marked by bear markets and soaring inflation, recent market rallies have been something of a respite.

Volatility, deep drawdowns, bear market territory. For now, 2022’s markets are under water. Compared to recent market highs, the S&P 500 is at -23.5%, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ at -33.7%, and the Russell 2000 off by 32.4%.

To build wealth over time, it’s essential to maximize the opportunity for positive compound returns across an entire economic cycle. Within a cycle一which could stretch from a year to a decade or more一there will be up and down markets. Achieving positive compound returns is relatively straightforward...

After a year of robust economic expansion at home and abroad, signs of slower growth are emerging. Ongoing inflation and a hawkish Fed have broadly moderated growth expectations, and there are early signs the market may be responding in kind.

Join Hilton Capital for its latest webinar recording covering Q1 2022. Investment team members discuss current economic conditions, market activity and analysis, and updates to the Tactical Income portfolio.

First-quarter 2022 proved to be a challenging environment for equities. Early on, markets were roiled by the Omicron variant, which caused economic slowing and raised fears of another lockdown. Mercifully, that is but a fading memory, and while there are no guarantees, it appears the worst of the pa...

Hilton Capital Management, LLC is pleased to announce that Hugh Ansty has joined the company as Managing Director and Head of National Accounts. Ansty will lead efforts to develop, maintain, and deepen relationships with national firms. He will work closely with due diligence and research teams to s...

Winning strategies are selected from SMArtX category peer groups based on superior performance or superiority across other statistical metrics. Three key competition criteria include 2021 performance, rolling three-year performance, and a rolling three-year Sharpe ratio.

If the last few weeks are a sign of things to come, we’ve clearly entered a different market environment which deserves attention from investors. Higher and more persistent inflation, slower economic growth, and geopolitical events have fueled a significant rise in volatility across all asset classe...

Hilton Capital Management is proud to mark the third anniversary of the Small & Mid Cap Opportunities (SMCO) strategy, managed by Tom Maher, a 31-year investment industry veteran. Tom joined Hilton in 2019 to strengthen the investment team and to launch SMCO, broadening the firm’s product offerings.