By all metrics Q1 2024 was an undeniably optimistic ride, underlined by the continuation of a soft landing, recession odds declining, inflation receding and rate cuts in the Fed queue. Economic data is supporting the optimism; the jobs picture remains strong, the inflation picture improving, despite...
2024 is off to a strong start with the S&P 500 having its best start since 2019 and continuing the momentum that began in Q423. Since the “risk on” rally began on 10/27/23, the performance of the S&P has been impressive:
A healthy labor market, which often includes significant immigrant participation, is crucial for a flourishing economy characterized by steady and sustainable growth with relatively low inflation. The central bank’s (the Fed’s) dual mandate, to achieve maximum employment and price stability, is in s...
An Upswing in Q42023 Earnings The Q423 earnings season has surpassed expectations, providing another catalyst to the equity markets. S&P 500 earnings growth was nearly 8%, a significant improvement over the expectations of 1.2%. Of the 97% of S&P 500 companies that have reported, 76% have had positi...
The Year of the Rabbit In 2023, the Gregorian calendar was designated the year of the rabbit—a symbol of good fortune and rebirth. Perhaps, then, it’s no surprise 2023’s markets closed in a similarly spirited fashion. Fourth quarter returns leaped happily to a banner finish, dodging a handful of obs...
I. Fourth Quarter 2023: Keeping up with the Russells Ok, let’s get this out of the way right away – we did not keep up. SMCO did end the year on a strong note, generating a +10.5% gross/+10.3% net return in the fourth quarter, but Mr. Market embraced the softening inflation and positive economic dat...
As we bid farewell to 2023, we reflect on a year that presented an array of challenges and unexpected turns for the U.S. economy and financial markets. The past 12 months unfolded as a tumultuous journey, marked by a convergence of complex factors that tested the resilience of economic foundations.
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